Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Wright Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaylen Wright has gone over 0.5 REC YDS in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 5.8 REC YDS · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Jaylen Wright's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Neck Stinger

Wright suffered a stinger during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the 49ers, and he finished his day having turned two carries into 11 yards while also adding 79 kickoff-return yards. The running back's status at the team's first practice of the week Wednesday will shed some more light on his chances to play Week 3 versus the Chiefs.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 17/100· model 35% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line35argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

6.9 REC YDS(×0.94 context)

L5 7.0 · L10 5.8 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 17.0

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Last 206 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Season6 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6

Last 6 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Next matchup — vs KC

Sep 27, 2026

9thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

KC allows 21.0 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 6 games, Jaylen Wright has gone over 0.5 REC YDS 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. KC has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (21.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.