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Washington CommandersJaylin Lane
#83 · WR · 5' 10" · 196 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Virginia Tech
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 19.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaylin Lane isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The 24-year-old from Virginia Tech was sidelined for Washington's final two games last season due to an ankle injury, but his participation in Wednesday's practice suggests he's moved past the issue. Lane had an impressive rookie campaign, catching 16 of 32 targets for 225 yards while accumulating 314 punt-return yards and two touchdowns. Now back at full health, he's expected to operate as one of the Commanders' top return men during the 2026 season.
Verdict
vs 16.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
24.5 REC YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 28.4 · L10 19.0 · med 16.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.2 · ceil 32.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 16.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rachaad White out+14.9 REC YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
25.6 REC YDS
60% over 16.5
With (4g)
10.8 REC YDS
25% over 16.5
Last matchup — vs SEA
Nov 3, 2025
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 37.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Jaylin Lane has gone over 16.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.