Washington Commanders

Jaylin Lane Receptions

Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaylin Lane has gone over 1.5 REC in 3 of his last 9 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Virginia Tech
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.6 REC · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutJaylin Lane isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The 24-year-old from Virginia Tech was sidelined for Washington's final two games last season due to an ankle injury, but his participation in Wednesday's practice suggests he's moved past the issue. Lane had an impressive rookie campaign, catching 16 of 32 targets for 225 yards while accumulating 314 punt-return yards and two touchdowns. Now back at full health, he's expected to operate as one of the Commanders' top return men during the 2026 season.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency11argues against it

Projection

2.0 REC(×1.09 context)

L5 1.8 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 109 games

33%over

3 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%

Last 209 games

33%over

3 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%

Season9 games

33%over

3 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	9/9
1.5Current	33%	3/9
	22%	2/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%3/8Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rachaad White out+0.6 REC when he sits

Without (5g)

1.8 REC

40% over 1.5

With (4g)

1.3 REC

25% over 1.5

Last matchup — vs SEA

Nov 3, 2025

24thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

SEA allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Jaylin Lane has gone over 1.5 REC 3 of 9 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.