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Carolina PanthersJonathon Brooks
#25 · RB · 6' 0" · 207 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 15.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJonathon Brooks isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Abdomen Surgery
- Est. return:
- Nov 8, 2026
The Panthers haven't yet opened Brooks' 21-day practice window, but that might happen soon after head coach Dave Canales said Monday that the young running back would "potentially" be designated for return from injured reserve this week. Brooks hasn't played since Week 2 after undergoing core-muscle surgery, so he'll likely need to turn in multiple full practices before the Panthers are comfortable clearing him for game action. Once he's activated from IR, Brooks will likely handle a supporting role out of the backfield behind starter Chubba Hubbard.
Verdict
vs 14.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 11% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line11argues against it
Consistency89supports it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
13.4 RUSH YDS(×0.89 context)
L5 15.0 · L10 15.0 · med 15.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 14.4 · ceil 15.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs DEN
Nov 8, 2026
22ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
DEN allows 42.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 19 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Jonathon Brooks has gone over 14.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (42.0 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.