Carolina Panthers

Jonathon Brooks Receptions

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jonathon Brooks has gone over 2.5 REC in 0 of his last 2 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

pays more

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.0 REC · PrizePicks line

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PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins

Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).

Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.

Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.

DoubtfulConfirm Jonathon Brooks's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Groin Not Specified

The Panthers are unlikely to provide a formal update on Brooks' status until he gets checked out by multiple doctors, but the running back appears destined to miss time after tweaking the same groin that he first injured during training camp.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 7% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it

Projection vs line13argues against it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

1.0 REC(×1.01 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Doubtful — likely sidelined; confirm status first.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 102 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 202 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Season2 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 2 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ CLE

Sep 27, 2026

22ndof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

CLE allows 1.8 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Jonathon Brooks has gone over 2.5 REC 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC of 32 teams (1.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

1 book @ 1.5 REC

No-vig fair (over): 37.1%
No-vig fair (under): 62.9%

Best Over

Sleeper+137

-12.0% EV

Best Under

Sleeper-250

-12.0% EV

Model vs market (over)-29.9%

Our model puts the over at 7.2% vs the market's no-vig 37.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Line shopping — Receptions (REC)

Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.

BookLineover rateEdge

over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.