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Green Bay PackersJordan Love Completions
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jordan Love has gone over 23.5 CMP in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah State
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 24.0 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJordan Love isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Love continued his season-long trend of prolific passing yardage totals in the Packers' fifth win of the season, and Thursday's total was accomplished with Christian Watson missing almost a full quarter because of chest and rib injuries. Love connected with Tucker Kraft (12 yards), Matthew Golden (24 yards) and Josh Jacobs (four yards) for his trio of TD passes, a figure that marked a new season high. Love did throw an interception for a third straight game, but it didn't lead to any Panthers points. Love is already up to what is currently a league-high 2,246 passing yards and 16 touchdown passes on the season heading into a Week 9 road showdown against the Patriots on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Verdict
vs 23.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 35% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line35argues against it
Consistency71supports it
Projection
22.4 CMP(×0.89 context)
L5 25.4 · L10 24.0 · med 24.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 21.4 · ceil 27.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 23.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ NE
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 20.4 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Jordan Love has gone over 23.5 CMP 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 17th-most CMP of 32 teams (20.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Jordan Love research
Jordan Love — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Love Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Love Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Love Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.