Loading…
Green Bay PackersJordan Love Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jordan Love has gone over 0.5 RUSH YDS in 2 of his last 8 decided games (25%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah State
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 1.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJordan Love isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Love continued his season-long trend of prolific passing yardage totals in the Packers' fifth win of the season, and Thursday's total was accomplished with Christian Watson missing almost a full quarter because of chest and rib injuries. Love connected with Tucker Kraft (12 yards), Matthew Golden (24 yards) and Josh Jacobs (four yards) for his trio of TD passes, a figure that marked a new season high. Love did throw an interception for a third straight game, but it didn't lead to any Panthers points. Love is already up to what is currently a league-high 2,246 passing yards and 16 touchdown passes on the season heading into a Week 9 road showdown against the Patriots on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Verdict
vs 0.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.5 RUSH YDS(×0.89 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 1.3 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Last 208 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Season8 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 25% | 2/8 | |
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away0%0/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days29%2/7Low
Next matchup — @ NE
Nov 8, 2026
28thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 8.3 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Jordan Love has gone over 0.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 8 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (8.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 3.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
DraftKings-107
-3.6% EV
Best Under
Caesars-110
-4.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.4%
Our model puts the over at 45.5% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.
More Jordan Love research
Jordan Love — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Love Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Love Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Love Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.