Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Mason Carries

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jordan Mason has gone over 11.5 CAR in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia Tech
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 11.5 CAR · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutJordan Mason isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Though the Vikings have yet to declare a starting QB between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy, there's continuity elsewhere in the offense, with the team's top two RBs, WRs and TEs from last year back for another campaign. Mason is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he recorded 758 yards and six TDs on 159 carries to go along with 14 catches for 51 yards in 16 contests, while Jones carried the ball 132 times for 548 yards and two touchdowns, adding 28 catches (on 41 targets) for 199 yards and a score in 12 games. With Mason and Jones both still around, another RB timeshare -- one that favors Jones in PPR formats -- is in the making for 2026, while Claiborne is a candidate to mix in on passing downs.

Verdict

vs 11.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency49neutral

Projection

10.0 CAR(×0.90 context)

L5 9.8 · L10 10.9 · med 10.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 8.4 · ceil 15.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2013 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Season13 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	77%	10/13
	69%	9/13
	54%	7/13
11.5Current	46%	6/13
	46%	6/13
	38%	5/13
	31%	4/13

Last 13 games — CAR per game vs. line 11.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 11.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away43%3/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days42%5/12Low

With a teammate out

How this CAR line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.J. McCarthy out+2.8 CAR when he sits

Without (5g)

13.2 CAR

80% over 11.5

With (8g)

10.4 CAR

25% over 11.5

Aaron Jones Sr. out+5.4 CAR when he sits

Without (5g)

14.8 CAR

100% over 11.5

With (8g)

9.4 CAR

13% over 11.5

Last matchup — vs GB

Jan 4, 2026

9thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

GB allows 11.8 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 36 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jordan Mason has gone over 11.5 CAR 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most CAR of 32 teams (11.8 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.