Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Mason Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jordan Mason has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia Tech
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.5 RUSH TD · our line

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OutJordan Mason isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Though the Vikings have yet to declare a starting QB between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy, there's continuity elsewhere in the offense, with the team's top two RBs, WRs and TEs from last year back for another campaign. Mason is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he recorded 758 yards and six TDs on 159 carries to go along with 14 catches for 51 yards in 16 contests, while Jones carried the ball 132 times for 548 yards and two touchdowns, adding 28 catches (on 41 targets) for 199 yards and a score in 12 games. With Mason and Jones both still around, another RB timeshare -- one that favors Jones in PPR formats -- is in the making for 2026, while Claiborne is a candidate to mix in on passing downs.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it

Projection vs line71supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 RUSH TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2013 games

38%over

5 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%

Season13 games

38%over

5 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	38%	5/13
	8%	1/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13

Last 13 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away14%1/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days42%5/12Low

With a teammate out

How this RUSH TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.J. McCarthy out+0.6 RUSH TD when he sits

Without (5g)

0.8 RUSH TD

60% over 0.5

With (8g)

0.3 RUSH TD

25% over 0.5

Aaron Jones Sr. out+0.6 RUSH TD when he sits

Without (5g)

0.8 RUSH TD

60% over 0.5

With (8g)

0.3 RUSH TD

25% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs GB

Jan 4, 2026

16thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

GB allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 36 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jordan Mason has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 38% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 16th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.