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Buffalo BillsJosh Allen
#17 · QB · 6' 5" · 237 lb · 20 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 18 of these 20 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wyoming
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 240.3 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allen extended his record of most games with two-plus passing touchdowns and two-plus rushing touchdowns, accomplishing the feat for the 10th time in his career while leading the Bills to a wild victory in their first regular-season game at the new Highmark Stadium. His pair of rushing touchdowns came from one and two yards out in the first and third quarters, respectively, and he hit Joshua Palmer (43 yards), Dawson Knox (one yard) and Dalton Kincaid (16 yards) for his trio of scoring strikes. Allen's solid passing numbers were made all the more impressive by the fact he lost DJ Moore to a shoulder injury late in the first half, and the star signal-caller encouragingly displayed strong chemistry with Keon Coleman (6-63-0) in response. Allen has quickly generated a 5:0 TD:INT and added four rushing touchdowns in his first two games, a noteworthy start to a quest for a second career MVP. Allen and his teammates now get some extra rest ahead of a Week 3 home showdown against the Chargers on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 251.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency52neutral
Projection
304.2 PASS YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 280.0 · L10 235.0 · med 252.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 176.6 · ceil 287.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 251.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 40% | 8/20 | ||
| 40% | 8/20 |
Situational splits
Over 251.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away45%5/11Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%9/19Medium
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
6thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LAC allows 265.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Josh Allen has gone over 251.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAC has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 6th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (265.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 69.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 239.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
Caesars-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+26.2%
Our model puts the over at 76.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (239.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.