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Buffalo BillsJosh Allen
#17 · QB · 6' 5" · 237 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wyoming
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 234.7 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allen reported soreness after Week 16 last season that eventually proved to be a fracture of the fifth metatarsal in his right foot. The procedure was performed after the Bills' divisional-round loss in Denver, and he's on track for an expected recovery time of 8-to-10 weeks. Allen is coming off another fantastic season in which he completed a career-best 69.3 percent of his passes for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while rushing 112 times for 579 yards and 14 more TDs in 17 regular-season games. Now that his health isn't a concern, he can begin building chemistry with the Bills' most notable offseason addition, wideout DJ Moore.
Verdict
vs 251.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency51neutral
Projection
254.2 PASS YDS(×1.05 context)
L5 228.2 · L10 239.1 · med 257.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 169.8 · ceil 279.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 251.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 39% | 7/18 | ||
| 39% | 7/18 |
Situational splits
Over 251.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away40%4/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
DJ Moore out+18.8 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
245.1 PASS YDS
63% over 251.5
With (10g)
226.3 PASS YDS
40% over 251.5
Last matchup — @ DEN
Jan 17, 2026
29thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
DEN allows 186.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 21 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Josh Allen has gone over 251.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 29th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (186.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 69.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.