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Buffalo BillsJosh Allen Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Josh Allen has gone over 35.5 RUSH YDS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wyoming
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 38.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allen extended his record of most games with two-plus passing touchdowns and two-plus rushing touchdowns, accomplishing the feat for the 10th time in his career while leading the Bills to a wild victory in their first regular-season game at the new Highmark Stadium. His pair of rushing touchdowns came from one and two yards out in the first and third quarters, respectively, and he hit Joshua Palmer (43 yards), Dawson Knox (one yard) and Dalton Kincaid (16 yards) for his trio of scoring strikes. Allen's solid passing numbers were made all the more impressive by the fact he lost DJ Moore to a shoulder injury late in the first half, and the star signal-caller encouragingly displayed strong chemistry with Keon Coleman (6-63-0) in response. Allen has quickly generated a 5:0 TD:INT and added four rushing touchdowns in his first two games, a noteworthy start to a quest for a second career MVP. Allen and his teammates now get some extra rest ahead of a Week 3 home showdown against the Chargers on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 35.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 29% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line29argues against it
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
51.9 RUSH YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 43.6 · L10 41.9 · med 35.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 22.4 · ceil 54.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 35.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 45% | 9/20 |
Situational splits
Over 35.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away45%5/11Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%10/19Medium
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
28thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LAC allows 7.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Josh Allen has gone over 35.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (7.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 32.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.3%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-4.9% EV
Best Under
Caesars-110
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+20.7%
Our model puts the over at 71.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (32.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Josh Allen research
Josh Allen — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Allen Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Allen Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Allen Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.