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Buffalo BillsJosh Allen
#17 · QB · 6' 5" · 237 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wyoming
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 256.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allen capped the opening drive with a one-yard touchdown plunge on which he went airborne to stretch the ball over the goal line. He struggled as a passer in the first half, including a first-quarter interception, but Allen heated up after halftime to post his highest passing yards total since a 334-yard Week 1 performance. Allen's 11-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore (knee) in the fourth quarter gave Allen sole possession of first place in Bills history with 259 passing touchdowns, including postseason play. He added a 23-yard touchdown pass to Dalton Kincaid on the next drive as the Bills pulled away from a Ravens team that lost top two QBs Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe). Allen has led the Bills to a 6-1 record heading into a Week 8 road matchup against the 6-1 Vikings.
Verdict
vs 252.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency73supports it
Projection
254.0 PASS YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 242.2 · L10 256.1 · med 253.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 217.6 · ceil 282.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 252.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 252.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 10, 2026
31stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
MIN allows 172.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Josh Allen has gone over 252.5 PASS YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (172.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 41.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 234.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.9%
Best Over
BetMGM-115
-6.3% EV
Best Under
Caesars-113
-5.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+2.4%
Our model puts the over at 52.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (234.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.