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Buffalo BillsJoshua Palmer
#5 · WR · 6' 1" · 210 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 10 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 31.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJoshua Palmer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Palmer didn't score at all last season in his first campaign with the Bills, but he's now found the end zone in back-to-back weeks. He's hauled in just one pass in each of the first two games, but he could see more looks if DJ Moore's shoulder injury puts him on the shelf for a stint. Palmer, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman would likely work as the main wide-receiver trio if Moore can't suit up in Week 3 against the Chargers.
Verdict
vs 29.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency2argues against it
Projection
27.9 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 21.2 · L10 26.5 · med 23.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 16.2 · ceil 46.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 29.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 |
Situational splits
Over 29.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
15thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAC allows 48.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Joshua Palmer has gone over 29.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAC has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 15th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (48.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 10.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-2.7%
Our model puts the over at 47.3% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (10.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.