Buffalo Bills

Joshua Palmer Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Joshua Palmer has gone over 2.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.5 TGT · our line

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OutJoshua Palmer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Palmer was plagued by the injury for a good chunk of the 2025 season in and out of the lineup and ended up missing both of the team's playoff games, but he's feeling much better as prep for the new campaign gets underway. After posting a disappointing 22-303-0 line in his first season with the Bills, Palmer should be able to play more and do more in his next go-around. However, with DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and James Cook all ahead of him in the pecking order, Palmer's upside is probably capped unless the Bills get struck with a number of injuries to their passing game.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency2argues against it

Projection

2.8 TGT(×0.91 context)

L5 3.2 · L10 3.5 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 4.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Season10 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	10/10
	100%	10/10
2.5Current	60%	6/10
	30%	3/10
	20%	2/10
	10%	1/10

Last 10 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

Last matchup — vs NYJ

Jan 4, 2026

24thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

NYJ allows 5.1 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 55 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Joshua Palmer has gone over 2.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.1 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.