Arizona Cardinals

Josiah Deguara Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Josiah Deguara has gone over 0.5 REC in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 0.8 REC · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutJosiah Deguara isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Deguara was a third-round pick of the Packers in the 2020 NFL Draft and has played for three different franchises across his six-year career. He appeared in 12 regular-season games for the Cardinals in 2025, when he contributed mostly on special teams while logging three catches (on five targets) for 21 yards and a touchdown. Deguara gives the 49ers some extra depth at tight end while George Kittle continues to be sidelined by a torn right Achilles that he suffered in January.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

0.9 REC(×1.05 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 54 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 104 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 204 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Season4 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	2/4
	25%	1/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%1/3Low

Next matchup — vs CAR

Aug 7, 2026

8thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

CAR allows 3.6 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 53 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 4 games, Josiah Deguara has gone over 0.5 REC 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most REC of 32 teams (3.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.