Baltimore Ravens

Justice Hill Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Justice Hill has gone over 6.5 FS in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 7.8 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutJustice Hill isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Hill saw an uptick in usage in the fourth quarter with the Ravens firmly in control of the game. He played 31 of 68 offensive snaps, which wasn't that far behind bell cow Derrick Henry's 37 snaps, though Hill is firmly entrenched as the Ravens' RB2, with Rasheen Ali being the distant third option. Hill will continue to serve as the change-of-pace back for the Ravens heading into Week 2 against the Saints on Sept. 20.

Verdict

vs 6.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it

Projection vs line46neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

8.4 FS(×1.19 context)

L5 9.8 · L10 7.8 · med 4.7

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 3.6 · ceil 8.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Last 208 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Season8 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Last 8 games — FS per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

Next matchup — @ DAL

Sep 27, 2026

19thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

DAL allows 10.1 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Justice Hill has gone over 6.5 FS 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 19th-most FS of 32 teams (10.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.