Pittsburgh Steelers

Kaleb Johnson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Dec 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kaleb Johnson has gone over 0.5 FS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 1.1 FS · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutKaleb Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Johnson, whom the Steelers took in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, recorded just 28 carries for 69 yards and one catch for nine yards over 10 regular-season games as a rookie. With Warren and Dowdle clearly atop the team's RB depth chart in 2026, Johnson doesn't have a clear path to steady carries in his second year as a pro. Also in the backfield mix are Travis Homer, Lew Nichols and rookie seventh-rounder Eli Heidenreich, but in any case Johnson will be off the fantasy lineup radar as long as Warren and Dowdle are available.

Verdict

vs 0.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.8 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 1.1 · med 0.9

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.3 · ceil 1.9

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	4/8
	33%	2/6
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — FS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rico Dowdle out-1.2 FS when he sits

Without (3g)

0.4 FS

0% over 0.5

With (5g)

1.6 FS

80% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs MIA

Dec 16, 2025

18thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

MIA allows 10.6 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Kaleb Johnson has gone over 0.5 FS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most FS of 32 teams (10.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.