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Pittsburgh SteelersKaleb Johnson
#20 · RB · 6' 1" · 224 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Dec 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 8.8 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKaleb Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Johnson, whom the Steelers took in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, recorded just 28 carries for 69 yards and one catch for nine yards over 10 regular-season games as a rookie. With Warren and Dowdle clearly atop the team's RB depth chart in 2026, Johnson doesn't have a clear path to steady carries in his second year as a pro. Also in the backfield mix are Travis Homer, Lew Nichols and rookie seventh-rounder Eli Heidenreich, but in any case Johnson will be off the fantasy lineup radar as long as Warren and Dowdle are available.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
6.4 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 5.8 · L10 8.8 · med 4.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.4 · ceil 15.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 4.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days29%2/7Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rico Dowdle out-8.1 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
3.7 RUSH YDS
0% over 4.5
With (5g)
11.8 RUSH YDS
60% over 4.5
Last matchup — vs MIA
Dec 16, 2025
22ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIA allows 46.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 38 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Kaleb Johnson has gone over 4.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (46.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.