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Green Bay PackersKaleb Johnson
#26 · RB · 6' 1" · 224 lb · 4 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 3 of these 4 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 21.0 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutKaleb Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Johnson appeared in 16 of the Packers' 59 offensive snaps against the Jets, ending behind Chris Brooks (27) and tying with starter MarShawn Lloyd (16). However, none of them could get anything going, with all three players combining for 63 yards off 18 attempts. Johnson had plenty of hype entering his rookie season with the Steelers in 2025, though he wasn't very involved. With Josh Jacobs (personal) on the Commissioner's Exempt List, there will be snaps up for grabs. While that could mean more involvement from Johnson moving ahead, it seems as if head coach Matt LaFleur will continue to have all three players split carries, which isn't good news for fantasy managers, especially those looking to fill the void left by Jacobs' absence.
Verdict
vs 37.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 99% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency45neutral
Projection
21.7 RUSH YDS
L5 21.0 · L10 21.0 · med 18.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 15.0 · ceil 26.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 54 games
0%over
0 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%Last 104 games
0%over
0 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%Last 204 games
0%over
0 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%Season4 games
0%over
0 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%Situational splits
Over 37.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/3Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/3Low
Next matchup — vs ATL
Sep 25, 2026
27thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
ATL allows 32.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Kaleb Johnson has gone over 37.5 RUSH YDS 0 of 4 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (32.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 37.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.7%
Best Over
DraftKings-114
-5.6% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-110
-5.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-49.4%
Our model puts the over at 0.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (37.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.