Green Bay Packers

Kaleb Johnson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kaleb Johnson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 4 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutKaleb Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Johnson appeared in 16 of the Packers' 59 offensive snaps against the Jets, ending behind Chris Brooks (27) and tying with starter MarShawn Lloyd (16). However, none of them could get anything going, with all three players combining for 63 yards off 18 attempts. Johnson had plenty of hype entering his rookie season with the Steelers in 2025, though he wasn't very involved. With Josh Jacobs (personal) on the Commissioner's Exempt List, there will be snaps up for grabs. While that could mean more involvement from Johnson moving ahead, it seems as if head coach Matt LaFleur will continue to have all three players split carries, which isn't good news for fantasy managers, especially those looking to fill the void left by Jacobs' absence.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 54 games

0%over

0 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%

Last 104 games

0%over

0 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%

Last 204 games

0%over

0 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%

Season4 games

0%over

0 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–49%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/3Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/3Low

Next matchup — vs ATL

Sep 25, 2026

4thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

ATL allows 0.3 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 4 games, Kaleb Johnson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 4 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 4th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.