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Cleveland BrownsKC Concepcion
#1 · WR · 6' 0" · 190 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 49.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKC Concepcion isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After a breakout game last Sunday against the Titans, which saw Concepcion record eight grabs for 129 yards on 10 targets, the rookie wideout came crashing back down against a divisional foe. Concepcion's four targets were a distant fourth on the team behind Harold Fannin (12), Denzel Boston (11) and Dylan Sampson (eight), and his four looks were good for just a 10.3 percent target share. Concepcion will try to rebound next Sunday against the Saints, but he's shown little upside, with zero touchdowns and just two games with more than 50 receiving yards.
Verdict
vs 37.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
54.0 REC YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 55.2 · L10 49.6 · med 37.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 29.8 · ceil 59.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 37.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 37.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%2/6Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NO allows 44.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, KC Concepcion has gone over 37.5 REC YDS 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 35.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 42.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 51.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 48.9%
Best Over
BetRivers-121
-6.7% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-105
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+8.6%
Our model puts the over at 59.6% vs the market's no-vig 51.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (45 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.