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Cleveland BrownsKC Concepcion Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
KC Concepcion has gone over 4.5 REC in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Receptions · season avg 5.0 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKC Concepcion isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Concepcion's six targets tied Harold Fannin for second on the team, finishing one behind Denzel Boston, who proved again to be the big-play threat for the Browns, finishing with a 5-95-1 receiving line. Concepcion is running the majority of his routes from the slot, but his average depth of target was a microscopic 1.8 yards Sunday. It's going to be difficult to produce big yards when catching the ball basically at the line of scrimmage. Through two games, Concepcion has 10 catches for 71 scoreless yards on 11 targets. He gets a boost in PPR formats as a WR4/5 headed into next Sunday's date with the Panthers.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency67supports it
Projection
4.6 REC(×0.92 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 5.0 · med 5.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 4.4 · ceil 5.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 4.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs CAR
Sep 27, 2026
23rdof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
CAR allows 3.1 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, KC Concepcion has gone over 4.5 REC 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC of 32 teams (3.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More KC Concepcion research
KC Concepcion — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Concepcion Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Concepcion Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Concepcion Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.