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Kansas City ChiefsKenneth Walker III
#9 · RB · 5' 9" · 211 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 83.7 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKenneth Walker III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Walker had a tall order in front of him in terms of matching his spectacular Chiefs debut against the Broncos on Monday night, but the offseason addition was able to make up for a lower rushing total by putting together a stellar showing as a receiver that included a clutch 22-yard reception on Kansas City's game-winning drive. Walker wasn't shabby on the ground by any stretch, either, and he's quickly amassed 290 rushing yards and his 60-yard touchdown in Week 1 as a runner while also offering plenty of value as a pass catcher with a 9-79-1 line on 16 targets. Walker's workhorse usage underscores how integral he is to the team's offensive plans, making him an elite option in all formats for a Week 3 road matchup against a highly beatable Dolphins defense next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 91.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 31% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it
Projection vs line31argues against it
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
126.0 RUSH YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 120.6 · L10 97.8 · med 98.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 56.0 · ceil 116.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
38%over
6 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%Season16 games
38%over
6 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 91.5Current | 38% | 6/16 | |
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 |
Situational splits
Over 91.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%6/15Medium
Next matchup — @ MIA
Sep 27, 2026
22ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIA allows 41.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kenneth Walker III has gone over 91.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 38% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (41.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 35.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (134.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.