Kansas City Chiefs

Kenneth Walker III Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kenneth Walker III has gone over 3.5 TGT in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.3 TGT · our line

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OutKenneth Walker III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Walker had a tall order in front of him in terms of matching his spectacular Chiefs debut against the Broncos on Monday night, but the offseason addition was able to make up for a lower rushing total by putting together a stellar showing as a receiver that included a clutch 22-yard reception on Kansas City's game-winning drive. Walker wasn't shabby on the ground by any stretch, either, and he's quickly amassed 290 rushing yards and his 60-yard touchdown in Week 1 as a runner while also offering plenty of value as a pass catcher with a 9-79-1 line on 16 targets. Walker's workhorse usage underscores how integral he is to the team's offensive plans, making him an elite option in all formats for a Week 3 road matchup against a highly beatable Dolphins defense next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 31% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral

Projection vs line31argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

5.9 TGT(×1.19 context)

L5 5.4 · L10 4.4 · med 4.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2016 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Season16 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	94%	15/16
	81%	13/16
	63%	10/16
3.5Current	44%	7/16
	13%	2/16
	13%	2/16
	6%	1/16

Last 16 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away43%3/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days47%7/15Low

Next matchup — @ MIA

Sep 27, 2026

24thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

MIA allows 2.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Kenneth Walker III has gone over 3.5 TGT 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 44% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 24th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.