Kansas City Chiefs

Kenneth Walker III Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kenneth Walker III has gone over 4.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.6 TGT · our line

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OutKenneth Walker III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The star running back was held below 100 scrimmage yards for a second straight game, but Walker watched his rookie backup, Emmett Johnson, erupt for a 5-128-1 line on five targets and take his only carry for 15 yards. Walker is still the clear No. 1 in the Kansas City backfield, but Johnson may have earned more consistent work with Sunday's impressive effort -- touches which might come at Walker's expense. He'll head into a Week 9 meeting with the Jets second in the race for the NFL rushing crown with 770 yards, just behind Bijan Robinson's 780.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line42neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

4.1 TGT(×0.92 context)

L5 3.2 · L10 4.6 · med 5.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.2 · ceil 5.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
	71%	5/7
	57%	4/7
4.5Current	57%	4/7
	29%	2/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Next matchup — vs NYJ

Nov 8, 2026

28thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

NYJ allows 1.9 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 19 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, Kenneth Walker III has gone over 4.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 28th-most TGT of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.