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Buffalo BillsKeon Coleman
#0 · WR · 6' 3" · 213 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 35.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Keon Coleman's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Shoulder
Coleman is on the injury report for the first time since Week 4, listed as a limited participant Thursday and Friday due to a shoulder injury. There's been no indication it's serious, so Coleman seems on track to play Monday night at Minnesota. Fellow Bills wideout DJ Moore (shoulder) also is gearing up to play.
Verdict
vs 26.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 41% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
41.2 REC YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 50.4 · L10 40.2 · med 38.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.8 · ceil 51.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 26.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 26.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 10, 2026
22ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIN allows 39.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 21 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Keon Coleman has gone over 26.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (39.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 28.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 28.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-111
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+8.7%
Our model puts the over at 58.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (28 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.