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Buffalo BillsKeon Coleman Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Keon Coleman has gone over 2.5 REC in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.3 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKeon Coleman isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Coleman benefited from the late second-quarter exit of DJ Moore (shoulder), finishing the game second in receptions and receiving yards for the Bills while also tying for runner-up status in targets. The oft-maligned 2024 second-round pick encouragingly flashed steady hands as well throughout the night, and Coleman will be in line to continue in an enhanced role in a Week 3 home matchup against the Chargers on Sunday, Sept. 27 if Moore is forced to sit out the contest.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency11argues against it
Projection
3.1 REC(×0.97 context)
L5 2.6 · L10 2.9 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 3.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
69%over
9 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–87%Season13 games
69%over
9 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–87%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 13/13 | ||
| 92% | 12/13 | ||
| 2.5Current | 69% | 9/13 | |
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%8/12Low
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
5thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
LAC allows 4.7 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Keon Coleman has gone over 2.5 REC 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 69% across the full season. LAC has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most REC of 32 teams (4.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 1.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 40.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 59.5%
Best Over
FanDuel+140
-2.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-169
-5.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+23.0%
Our model puts the over at 63.5% vs the market's no-vig 40.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 69%.
More Keon Coleman research
Keon Coleman — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Coleman Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Coleman Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Coleman Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.