Buffalo Bills

Keon Coleman Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Keon Coleman has gone over 2.5 REC in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida State
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.1 REC · our line

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OutKeon Coleman isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Coleman received mentorship from former Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson during the offseason, trying to add intangibles to the 2024 second-round pick's impressive frame (6-foot-3, 213 pounds). New head coach Joe Brady praised Coleman during Buffalo's mandatory minicamp in June. "It's the consistency and the routine and everything he's doing, but handling everything like a pro," Brady said of Coleman. "He's positioned himself in a great place and just got to continue to build on that." Coleman is jostling for depth-chart positioning in a Bills wide receiver room that also includes DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, Joshua Palmer and Skyler Bell.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)92supports it

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency10argues against it

Projection

2.1 REC(×0.90 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 2.6 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2012 games

67%over

8 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 39%–86%

Season12 games

67%over

8 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 39%–86%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	12/12
	92%	11/12
2.5Current	67%	8/12
	17%	2/12
	8%	1/12
	8%	1/12

Last 12 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away67%4/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days64%7/11Low

Last matchup — @ DEN

Jan 17, 2026

9thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

DEN allows 3.6 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Keon Coleman has gone over 2.5 REC 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 67% across the full season. DEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 9th-most REC of 32 teams (3.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.