Loading…
Las Vegas RaidersKirk Cousins
#8 · QB · 6' 3" · 209 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan State
- Experience
- 16 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 205.7 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKirk Cousins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Cousins' crisp and nearly mistake-free performance was critical to the Raiders pulling off a significant upset over their divisional rival. The veteran signal-caller validated head coach Klint Kubiak's decision to open the season with him as the starter over first overall pick Fernando Mendoza, with Cousins delivering a 40-yard strike to Tre Tucker in the first quarter and 13- and 11-yard scoring tosses to Cody White in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Cousins has shown very good command of Kubiak's offense over the first two games, and he'll take a 67.8 percent completion rate and a 6:3 TD:INT into an intriguing interconference road matchup against the Saints next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 207.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency47neutral
Projection
179.3 PASS YDS(×0.88 context)
L5 183.2 · L10 205.7 · med 188.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 161.6 · ceil 237.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Season10 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 207.5Current | 30% | 3/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 |
Situational splits
Over 207.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/5Medium
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%3/9Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Sep 27, 2026
17thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NO allows 220.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kirk Cousins has gone over 207.5 PASS YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 30% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 17th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (220.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 65.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 192.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-24.0%
Our model puts the over at 26.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (193 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 30%.