Loading…
Minnesota VikingsKyler Murray
#1 · QB · 5' 10" · 207 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 5, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 192.4 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKyler Murray isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Murray had an up-and-down practice as he continues to adjust to his new surroundings. The first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft is the perceived favorite in Minnesota's quarterback competition against McCarthy, who struggled in 2025 after sitting out his rookie campaign in 2024 due to a knee injury.
Verdict
vs 199.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency77supports it
Projection
195.6 PASS YDS
L5 192.4 · L10 192.4 · med 200.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 162.2 · ceil 220.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 199.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 199.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Last matchup — vs TEN
Oct 5, 2025
5thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
TEN allows 245.8 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Kyler Murray has gone over 199.5 PASS YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 5th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (245.8 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 26.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.