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Minnesota VikingsKyler Murray Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Kyler Murray has gone over 20.5 RUSH YDS in 5 of his last 5 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 34.6 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutKyler Murray isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Murray was concussed 11 snaps into his regular-season Vikings debut in Week 1 against the Packers and missed this past Sunday's win over the Bears. His return to the lineup will send Carson Wentz back to the bench as the QB2 after he completed 23 of 39 passes (59 percent) for 276 yards (7.1 YPA) and three touchdowns with no interceptions across the last two weeks against Green Bay and Chicago. Murray's return and Wentz's retreat to backup duties doesn't change much for the Minnesota pass catchers from a fantasy perspective.
Verdict
vs 20.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 99% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency73supports it
Projection
33.2 RUSH YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 34.6 · L10 34.6 · med 37.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 30.6 · ceil 38.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 105 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 205 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Season5 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Situational splits
Over 20.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%4/4Low
Next matchup — @ TB
Sep 27, 2026
9thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
TB allows 21.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Kyler Murray has gone over 20.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 5 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 9th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (21.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 20.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.5%
Best Over
BetRivers-113
-4.8% EV
Best Under
Caesars-110
-5.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+48.5%
Our model puts the over at 99.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (20.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.
More Kyler Murray research
Kyler Murray — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Murray Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Murray Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Murray Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.