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Los Angeles RamsKyren Williams
#23 · RB · 5' 9" · 207 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 68.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKyren Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Williams had a difficult time finding running room against a game Chargers defense, but he salvaged his fantasy day with a one-yard touchdown run late in the second quarter. Williams has five of his six rushing scores on the season in the last four games, and he's still averaging a robust 4.9 yards per carry heading into a Week 9 road matchup against the Commanders next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 68.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency50neutral
Matchup75supports it
Projection
73.4 RUSH YDS(×1.07 context)
L5 66.8 · L10 68.5 · med 68.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 49.4 · ceil 86.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 68.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 68.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%1/5Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ WSH
Nov 8, 2026
26thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
WSH allows 36.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Kyren Williams has gone over 68.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (36.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 20.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 60.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+9.5%
Our model puts the over at 59.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (60.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.