Los Angeles Rams

Kyren Williams Carries

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kyren Williams has gone over 13.5 CAR in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Notre Dame
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 15.2 CAR · our line

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OutKyren Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

During the 2025 regular season, Williams carried 259 times for 1,252 yards and 10 rushing TDs while adding 36 catches for 281 yards and three receiving scores in 17 games. In that same span, Corum rushed for 746 yards (on 145 carries) and six TDs and caught eight passes for 36 yards in his second campaign as a pro. Looking ahead, that 1-2 punch, which paced the league's No. 7 rushing attack last season, is intact for 2026, which sets Williams up for another year of fantasy utility. Beyond the Rams' top duo, Ronnie Rivers is back as the team's RB3, while Jarquez Hunter, Jordan Waters and Dean Connors round out the backfield depth chart ahead of training camp.

Verdict

vs 13.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency56neutral

Projection

14.0 CAR(×0.96 context)

L5 13.8 · L10 14.5 · med 13.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 12.0 · ceil 18.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

45%over

9 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%

Season20 games

45%over

9 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	95%	19/20
	95%	19/20
	75%	15/20
13.5Current	45%	9/20
	35%	7/20
	30%	6/20
	30%	6/20

Last 20 games — CAR per game vs. line 13.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away42%5/12Low

Days since last game

3+ days42%8/19Medium

Last matchup — @ SEA

Jan 25, 2026

31stof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

SEA allows 9.5 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 41 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Kyren Williams has gone over 13.5 CAR 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 45% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 31st-most CAR of 32 teams (9.5 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.