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Los Angeles RamsKyren Williams
#23 · RB · 5' 9" · 207 lb · 20 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 19 of these 20 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 70.5 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Verdict
vs 63.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsHot overFireFactor 53/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency55neutral
Projection
58.7 RUSH YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 56.8 · L10 68.0 · med 71.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 53.2 · ceil 87.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season20 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Situational splits
Over 63.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away67%8/12Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%12/19Medium
Next matchup — vs NYG
Sep 22, 2026
22ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NYG allows 41.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kyren Williams has gone over 63.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 65% across the full season. NYG has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (41.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 19.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 63.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+0.5%
Our model puts the over at 50.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (63.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.