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Los Angeles ChargersLadd McConkey
#15 · WR · 6' 0" · 185 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 53.3 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLadd McConkey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McConkey gained clearance from his questionable tag due to a rib injury to suit up, and the third-year wideout tied for the team lead in receptions while finishing second in receiving yards. However, it was a lackluster and mistake-filled day overall for the Chargers passing attack, so McConkey's numbers should also be viewed in that context. McConkey should play a critical role as Los Angeles looks to avoid what would be an alarming third straight loss to open the season in a Week 3 road showdown against the Bills next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 53.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency7argues against it
Projection
45.1 REC YDS(×0.87 context)
L5 41.6 · L10 53.9 · med 49.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 32.0 · ceil 82.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Season16 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 53.5Current | 44% | 7/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 |
Situational splits
Over 53.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%6/15Medium
Next matchup — @ BUF
Sep 27, 2026
10thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
BUF allows 54.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ladd McConkey has gone over 53.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 10th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (54.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 29.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 53.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.7%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-5.7% EV
Best Under
Caesars-113
-6.2% EV
Model vs market (over)-13.6%
Our model puts the over at 36.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (53.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.