Loading…
Baltimore RavensLamar Jackson
#8 · QB · 6' 2" · 205 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Louisville
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 219.8 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLamar Jackson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After throwing for 324 yards and averaging 13.0 yards per attempt in a win over the Colts last week, Jackson's passing numbers fell back to earth with Zay Flowers (hamstring) sidelined. The star QB still had a chance to put together a game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter, but Rashod Bateman broke off a route early and Jackson's pass attempt deep into New Orleans territory got intercepted instead. It was Jackson's first INT in two games, and he's amassed 559 passing yards and 74 rushing yards with three total TDs (two passing, one rushing) heading into a Week 3 road trip to Dallas.
Verdict
vs 219.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 19% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line19argues against it
Consistency64supports it
Projection
277.5 PASS YDS(×1.18 context)
L5 252.4 · L10 213.5 · med 211.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 182.8 · ceil 242.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 219.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 |
Situational splits
Over 219.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — @ DAL
Sep 27, 2026
29thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
DAL allows 145.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Lamar Jackson has gone over 219.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 29th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (145.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 47.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 238.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
Caesars-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+30.9%
Our model puts the over at 80.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (238.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.