Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Lamar Jackson has gone over 20.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Louisville
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.1 FS · our line

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OutLamar Jackson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

On that topic, Jackson indicated "whatever it takes to win. So whether I'm running less or running more, it's whatever it takes to win." It's worth noting that various injuries throughout the 2025 campaign affected the star QB's practice participation, including a hamstring issue that cropped up in Week 3 and led to Jackson missing three contests. Now that he's had the offseason to heal up, a healthy Jackson, in general, profiles as a bounce-back candidate in 2026, with a return to triple-digit carries plausible in the absence of injury setbacks. While Jackson declined to elaborate on how talks regarding a possible contract extension with the Ravens were going, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic relays the 29-year-old signal caller maintains he wants to remain with the franchise for the foreseeable future. "I love this organization. I love this city," Jackson said. "This is the team that drafted me, got a lot of love for me and I got a lot of love for this city and the team as well." Meanwhile, the two-time MVP has been a regular at Baltimore's voluntary offseason workout program, with an eye toward gaining familiarity with a new offensive scheme/system being implemented by the team's incoming coaching staff.

Verdict

vs 20.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral

Projection vs line46neutral

Consistency23argues against it

Projection

17.9 FS(×1.05 context)

L5 13.0 · L10 17.0 · med 18.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 7.5 · ceil 26.3

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2011 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Season11 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	55%	6/11
	55%	6/11
	55%	6/11
20.5Current	55%	6/11
	45%	5/11
	36%	4/11
	36%	4/11

Last 11 games — FS per game vs. line 20.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 20.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%5/10Low

Last matchup — @ PIT

Jan 5, 2026

6thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

PIT allows 18.9 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Lamar Jackson has gone over 20.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 6th-most FS of 32 teams (18.9 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.