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Washington CommandersLuke McCaffrey
#11 · WR · 6' 2" · 195 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Rice
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 30.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLuke McCaffrey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McCaffrey will be a healthy scratch for a second consecutive week, with the Commanders going with six wide receivers on the active game-day roster, led by Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams. McCaffrey's next chance to play is Week 3 against the Seahawks on Sept. 27, though he doesn't appear to have a clear path to playing time.
Verdict
vs 24.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
25.5 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 30.2 · L10 30.2 · med 24.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 16.8 · ceil 51.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 24.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%1/4Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
32ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 21.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Luke McCaffrey has gone over 24.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 32nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (21.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 20.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.