Washington Commanders

Luke McCaffrey Receptions

Stats updated: Oct 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Luke McCaffrey has gone over 1.5 REC in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Rice
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.8 REC · our line

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OutLuke McCaffrey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

McCaffrey's second NFL season was cut short in Week 9 of last year when he suffered a broken collarbone. After the Commanders let Deebo Samuel walk in free agency and selected Antonio Williams in the third round of the 2026 Draft, McCaffrey will be jockeying for positioning in Washington's wideout room behind clear WR1 Terry McLaurin. Along with McCaffrey and Williams, the Commanders also have Treylon Burks, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane and Van Jefferson as candidates for playing time.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.8 REC

L5 1.8 · L10 1.8 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.8 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 105 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 205 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Season5 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	80%	4/5
1.5Current	60%	3/5
	40%	2/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Last matchup — @ KC

Oct 28, 2025

19thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 3.4 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 58 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 5 games, Luke McCaffrey has gone over 1.5 REC 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 19th-most REC of 32 teams (3.4 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.