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Green Bay PackersLuke Musgrave
#88 · TE · 6' 6" · 253 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 22.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutLuke Musgrave isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Neck Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Aug 13, 2026
Gutekunst said that Green Bay's policy is to always be cautious with neck injuries. If Musgrave is able to return to the practice field in short order, he may be able to benefit from increased reps while Tucker Kraft (ACL), who is also on the active/PUP list, progresses in his own recovery. That said, Kraft still appears to have a chance to be on the field in Week 1, potentially relegating Musgrave to his usual depth role in any case. Musgrave appears to have sustained his neck injury during OTAs in June.
Verdict
vs 22.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
25.7 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 25.6 · L10 22.3 · med 22.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 7.0 · ceil 34.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 22.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Last matchup — @ CHI
Jan 11, 2026
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
CHI allows 29.1 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 31 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Luke Musgrave has gone over 22.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (29.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 16.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.