Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Luke Musgrave has gone over 4.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 4.3 FS · our line

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OutLuke Musgrave isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Neck Not Specified
Est. return:: Aug 13, 2026

Gutekunst said that Green Bay's policy is to always be cautious with neck injuries. If Musgrave is able to return to the practice field in short order, he may be able to benefit from increased reps while Tucker Kraft (ACL), who is also on the active/PUP list, progresses in his own recovery. That said, Kraft still appears to have a chance to be on the field in Week 1, potentially relegating Musgrave to his usual depth role in any case. Musgrave appears to have sustained his neck injury during OTAs in June.

Verdict

vs 4.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

4.9 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 4.8 · L10 4.3 · med 4.7

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.7 · ceil 6.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	90%	9/10
	60%	6/10
	60%	6/10
4.5Current	50%	5/10
	30%	3/10
	20%	2/10
	10%	1/10

Last 10 games — FS per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days44%4/9Low

Last matchup — @ CHI

Jan 11, 2026

12thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends

CHI allows 6.8 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 31 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Luke Musgrave has gone over 4.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 12th-most FS of 32 teams (6.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.