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Washington CommandersMarcus Mariota
#8 · QB · 6' 4" · 222 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 190.3 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMarcus Mariota isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After Daniels injured his elbow on the Commanders' final snap of the second quarter of Sunday's 37-20 loss to the Cowboys, Mariota directed the offense for the second half and finished with 11 completions on 16 attempts for 111 yards and a touchdown to go with three yards on his lone carry. Though a recovery timeline for Daniels has yet to be established while he plans to consult with a number of experts over the next few days before deciding on a treatment plan, the same injury kept him out for seven of the Commanders' final eight games of the 2025 campaign. With that in mind, Mariota could very well be headed for a multi-game run as Washington's starter.
Verdict
vs 205.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line37argues against it
Consistency50neutral
Projection
162.1 PASS YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 184.8 · L10 190.3 · med 211.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 138.0 · ceil 213.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Last 209 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Season9 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 205.5Current | 67% | 6/9 | |
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 |
Situational splits
Over 205.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%5/8Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
32ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
SEA allows 136.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Marcus Mariota has gone over 205.5 PASS YDS 6 of 9 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 32nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (136.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 57.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.