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Washington CommandersMarcus Mariota Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Marcus Mariota has gone over 15.5 FS in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 15.0 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMarcus Mariota isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
As he's often done in his career, Mariota took the reins of the offense from an injured starter and put together solid numbers. However, the veteran signal-caller managed to lead Washington to only 10 second-half points after the Commanders had already gone into intermission with a 17-10 deficit. Mariota's one touchdown pass went to Stefon Diggs from 20 yards out with 9:03 remaining to bring the Commanders within 10 points, but the Cowboys responded with an 11-play, 83-yard march that culminated in CeeDee Lamb's second touchdown catch of the afternoon. Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports Daniels dislocated his left elbow Sunday as he did last season, and although an X-ray ruled out a fracture, Mariota is expected to be in line for a multi-game stint as the starting quarterback.
Verdict
vs 15.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency36argues against it
Projection
12.3 FS(×0.93 context)
L5 13.6 · L10 15.0 · med 15.2
Consistency
Variable
floor 11.5 · ceil 19.3
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 15.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
28thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
SEA allows 10.2 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Marcus Mariota has gone over 15.5 FS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most FS of 32 teams (10.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Marcus Mariota research
Marcus Mariota — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mariota Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Mariota Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Mariota Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.