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Baltimore RavensMark Andrews
#89 · TE · 6' 5" · 250 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 26.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 22.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
20.2 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 18.0 · L10 21.4 · med 19.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 14.0 · ceil 32.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2016 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Season16 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 10/16 | ||
| 63% | 10/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 22.5Current | 44% | 7/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Lamar Jackson out+1.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
27.0 REC YDS
75% over 22.5
With (12g)
25.8 REC YDS
33% over 22.5
Last matchup — @ PIT
Jan 5, 2026
16thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
PIT allows 26.8 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 38 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mark Andrews has gone over 22.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 44% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 16th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (26.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.