Baltimore Ravens

Mark Andrews Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Mark Andrews has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 8 decided games (13%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutMark Andrews isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The veteran tight end actually led the Ravens in receiving yards with his modest total, as fill-in signal-caller Joe Fagnano averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt and totaled 60 passing yards overall. Andrews opened the season with back-to-back 49-yard tallies on 10 total catches, but he's been stuck at 28 receiving yards or fewer in his seven subsequent games. Andrews will hope to benefit from the pending trade acquisition of Jacoby Brissett, who should bring some stability and productivity to Baltimore's currently embattled quarterback situation.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 91% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line91supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 108 games

13%over

1 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–47%

Last 208 games

13%over

1 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–47%

Season8 games

13%over

1 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–47%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away0%0/5Medium

Days since last game

3+ days14%1/7Low

Last matchup — @ BUF

Nov 1, 2026

29thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

BUF allows 0.1 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 16 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Mark Andrews has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 8 decided times (13%) — versus 13% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 29th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 13%.