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Los Angeles RamsMatthew Stafford
#9 · QB · 6' 3" · 214 lb · 20 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 18 of these 20 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 19 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 279.1 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutMatthew Stafford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Stafford shrugged off the absence of No. 1 receiver Puka Nacua (hip), delivering a stellar and nearly mistake-free performance while focusing heavily on Davante Adams, who was on the receiving end of half of the veteran signal-caller's touchdown passes. Stafford averaged 10.5 yards per attempt overall, and his scoring strikes came from 31 and 11 yards out to Adams, and from 10 and five yards on connections with Kyren Williams and Terrance Ferguson, respectively. Stafford has a thorny Week 3 assignment on tap irrespective of Nacua's availability, however, considering the Rams will pay a visit to the Broncos on Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 238.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency50neutral
Projection
279.0 PASS YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 283.6 · L10 305.2 · med 292.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 193.2 · ceil 369.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
90%over
9 over · 1 under
Medium confidence95% CI 60%–98%Last 2020 games
75%over
15 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 53%–89%Season20 games
75%over
15 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 53%–89%Situational splits
Over 238.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home78%7/9Low
Away73%8/11Low
Days since last game
3+ days79%15/19Medium
Next matchup — vs NYG
Sep 22, 2026
10thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NYG allows 251.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Matthew Stafford has gone over 238.5 PASS YDS 9 of 10 decided times (90%) — versus 75% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 10th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (251.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 83.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 243.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+21.3%
Our model puts the over at 71.3% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (240.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.