Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Matthew Stafford has gone over 18.5 FS in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 19 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 21.1 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutMatthew Stafford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Stafford shrugged off the absence of No. 1 receiver Puka Nacua (hip), delivering a stellar and nearly mistake-free performance while focusing heavily on Davante Adams, who was on the receiving end of half of the veteran signal-caller's touchdown passes. Stafford averaged 10.5 yards per attempt overall, and his scoring strikes came from 31 and 11 yards out to Adams, and from 10 and five yards on connections with Kyren Williams and Terrance Ferguson, respectively. Stafford has a thorny Week 3 assignment on tap irrespective of Nacua's availability, however, considering the Rams will pay a visit to the Broncos on Sunday night.

Verdict

vs 18.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)95supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency41neutral

Projection

20.2 FS(×0.99 context)

L5 19.0 · L10 21.3 · med 23.2

Consistency

Variable

floor 13.5 · ceil 27.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2020 games

65%over

13 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%

Season20 games

65%over

13 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%

Last 20 games — FS per game vs. line 18.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 18.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home78%7/9Low

Away55%6/11Low

Days since last game

3+ days68%13/19Medium

Next matchup — vs NYG

Sep 22, 2026

7thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

NYG allows 21.7 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Matthew Stafford has gone over 18.5 FS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 65% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most FS of 32 teams (21.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.