Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Matthew Stafford has gone over 22.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 19 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 21.0 FS · our line

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OutMatthew Stafford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Stafford was set to enter the 2026 campaign in the final year of his two-year, $84 million contract that he signed with Los Angeles ahead of the 2025 season, but he now will be under contract through 2027. The 38-year-old is coming off of an MVP campaign in which he compiled 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns while completing 65 percent of his passes over 17 regular-season contests. His new deal is worth up to $60 million dollars, so Stafford could earn up to $105 million over the next two seasons. The Rams drafted the quarterback's successor in Ty Simpson 13th overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, and Simpson may get a chance to sit behind Stafford for multiple years.

Verdict

vs 22.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency48neutral

Projection

23.8 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 20.9 · L10 21.7 · med 23.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 13.6 · ceil 27.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2020 games

55%over

11 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%

Season20 games

55%over

11 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	60%	12/20
	60%	12/20
	60%	12/20
22.5Current	55%	11/20
	40%	8/20
	40%	8/20
	40%	8/20

Last 20 games — FS per game vs. line 22.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 22.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home63%5/8Low

Away50%6/12Low

Days since last game

3+ days58%11/19Medium

Last matchup — @ SEA

Jan 25, 2026

22ndof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

SEA allows 15.2 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Matthew Stafford has gone over 22.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most FS of 32 teams (15.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.