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Los Angeles RamsMatthew Stafford Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Matthew Stafford has gone over 17.5 FS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 19 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 17.5 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMatthew Stafford isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Stafford was seen leaving the locker room with his upper right arm wrapped in ice after this past Sunday's win against the Chargers. Head coach Sean McVay told Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register on Monday that Stafford has been tending to arm soreness, but the quarterback clarified the situation with Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times on Wednesday, stating that he's had his right arm wrapped in ice regularly this season. An uncapped session to begin Week 9 prep puts Stafford in the clear to continue to lead the Ram's offense Sunday in Washington.
Verdict
vs 17.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
18.2 FS(×1.09 context)
L5 16.7 · L10 17.5 · med 17.7
Consistency
Variable
floor 10.2 · ceil 25.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 17.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ WSH
Nov 8, 2026
3rdof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
WSH allows 20.6 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Matthew Stafford has gone over 17.5 FS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 3rd-most FS of 32 teams (20.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Matthew Stafford research
Matthew Stafford — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Stafford Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Stafford Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Stafford Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.