Las Vegas Raiders

Mike Washington Jr. Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Mike Washington Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 5 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arkansas
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutMike Washington Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Per Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com, Kubiak said that he "absolutely" believes that Jeanty can be a bell cow running back, but at least for the time being, he looks like he'll be part of a timeshare with Washington. Jeanty has seen his carry count drop or hold steady in each successive game since Week 1, culminating in the 2025 first-round pick logging just two carries in this past Sunday's 38-33 win over the Jets, while Washington carried a career-high 25 times for 83 yards. The split in carries may not be quite as dramatic in weeks to come, but Washington appears to have earned himself a sizable piece of the pie while he's averaging 4.3 yards per tote to Jeanty's 3.1 mark through eight games. Jeanty remains the Raiders' clear cut top option on passing downs over Washington, who has recorded just three receptions for 11 yards on six targets so far this season.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×0.98 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 105 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 205 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Season5 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/4Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/4Low

Next matchup — @ SF

Nov 8, 2026

6thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

SF allows 0.1 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 14 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 5 games, Mike Washington Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 5 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.