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Atlanta FalconsNathan Carter
#38 · RB · 5' 10" · 202 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Oct 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 46.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutNathan Carter isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Carter handled a depth role last season, gaining 60 yards on nine carries across seven regular-season appearances while also playing 49 snaps on special teams. Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson are locked into the top two backfield roles, so Carter's path to the roster likely depends on how much special-teams value he's able to provide. Even if he wins the No. 3 job, Carter won't have a path to fantasy relevance as long as Atlanta's top two running backs remain healthy.
Verdict
vs 45.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
46.0 RUSH YDS
L5 46.0 · L10 46.0 · med 46.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 46.0 · ceil 46.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 45.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 45.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away100%1/1Low
Last matchup — @ CAR
Sep 21, 2025
18thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CAR allows 48.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 1 games, Nathan Carter has gone over 45.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.5 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.