Atlanta Falcons

Nathan Carter Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Oct 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Nathan Carter has gone over 0.5 REC YDS in 0 of his last 1 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 0.0 REC YDS · our line

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OutNathan Carter isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Carter handled a depth role last season, gaining 60 yards on nine carries across seven regular-season appearances while also playing 49 snaps on special teams. Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson are locked into the top two backfield roles, so Carter's path to the roster likely depends on how much special-teams value he's able to provide. Even if he wins the No. 3 job, Carter won't have a path to fantasy relevance as long as Atlanta's top two running backs remain healthy.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC YDS

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 51 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 101 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 201 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Season1 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away0%0/1Low

Last matchup — @ CAR

Sep 21, 2025

27thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

CAR allows 12.4 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 1 games, Nathan Carter has gone over 0.5 REC YDS 0 of 1 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (12.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.