Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Nico Collins has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutNico Collins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Hamstring Strain
Est. return:: Sep 27, 2026

Collins already has been ruled out for Sunday's game versus the Bengals as a result of the hamstring injury that he picked up at Wednesday's practice. The injury isn't considered to be a long-term concern, but as Wilson reports, the Texans could err on the side of caution and keep him out for Week 3 at Indianapolis as well to ensure the issue doesn't linger. In Collins' absence, Houston will roll with Xavier Hutchinson, Kayshon Boutte, Jaylin Noel, Jared Wayne and practice-squad call-up Lewis Bond at wide receiver.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)95supports it

Projection vs line67supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 REC TD(×1.01 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2014 games

36%over

5 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–61%

Season14 games

36%over

5 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–61%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	36%	5/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away38%3/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%5/13Low

Next matchup — @ IND

Sep 27, 2026

12thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

IND allows 0.4 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Nico Collins has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 36% across the full season. IND has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 12th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 36%.