Houston Texans

Nico Collins Targets

Stats updated: Jan 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Nico Collins has gone over 9.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 8.9 TGT · our line

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OutNico Collins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The wideout has yet to play a full 17-game slate in his NFL career, so the organization's desire to make sure he's 100 percent healthy ahead of Week 1 is somewhat warranted. The 27-year-old Collins has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons and remains the clear No. 1 option for C.J. Stroud in the passing game.

Verdict

vs 9.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency50neutral

Projection

8.7 TGT(×0.99 context)

L5 8.8 · L10 9.1 · med 9.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 6.4 · ceil 10.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2013 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Season13 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	77%	10/13
	69%	9/13
	62%	8/13
9.5Current	46%	6/13
	23%	3/13
	8%	1/13
	8%	1/13

Last 13 games — TGT per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%6/12Low

Last matchup — @ PIT

Jan 13, 2026

1stof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

PIT allows 6.2 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 60 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Nico Collins has gone over 9.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 1st-most TGT of 32 teams (6.2 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.