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Los Angeles ChargersOmarion Hampton
#8 · RB · 6' 0" · 220 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 65.8 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutOmarion Hampton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Hampton put together a perfectly useful fantasy performance in the Chargers' alarming upset loss, spearheading Los Angeles' ground attack while handling a workhorse role. Hampton added a one-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, but his lost fumble in Raiders territory with 3:52 remaining in the game and the Bolts trying to erase a three-point deficit was a back-breaker, as it led to Las Vegas' game-clinching touchdown. Hampton has a rushing touchdown in each of the first two games of the new season but has a pair of lost fumbles as well. Nevertheless, the talented back will remain in the lead role for a Week 3 road showdown against the Bills next Sunday, a critical early-season contest for Jim Harbaugh's squad.
Verdict
vs 65.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
63.4 RUSH YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 62.4 · L10 65.8 · med 58.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 43.8 · ceil 86.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 65.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 65.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%2/7Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — @ BUF
Sep 27, 2026
10thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
BUF allows 51.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Omarion Hampton has gone over 65.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (51.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 28.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 62.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.4%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-4.7% EV
Best Under
Caesars-110
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-7.6%
Our model puts the over at 42.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (62.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.